POLY // DERIBIT PROBABILITY CONSOLE

BTC and ETH higher/lower scans in a dark, market-first terminal.

This is a relative-value scanner, not a guarantee machine. It compares Polymarket binary ladders with Deribit’s implied volatility surface and ranks where the probability gap is widest.

Last snapshotAug 14, 23:36 UTC80 live ladders across 5 dates.
Biggest model gap+729 bpAbsolute difference between Polymarket midpoint and Deribit risk-neutral probability.
Deployment targetpoly.tjanczyk.comExisting tracker host stays available at track.tjanczyk.com.
BTCAug 15, 16:00
Spot$62,860
Avg gap+87 bp
Rows40
ETHAug 15, 16:00
Spot$1,876.96
Avg gap+78 bp
Rows40
Scan matrix

80 live comparisons

Dark rows are just lower conviction. They still matter when the gap is wide.
MarketPolyDeribitGapQuality