POLY // DERIBIT PROBABILITY CONSOLE

BTC and ETH higher/lower scans in a dark, market-first terminal.

This is a relative-value scanner, not a guarantee machine. It compares Polymarket binary ladders with Deribit’s implied volatility surface and ranks where the probability gap is widest.

Last snapshotAug 15, 17:23 UTC80 live ladders across 4 dates.
Biggest model gap+659 bpAbsolute difference between Polymarket midpoint and Deribit risk-neutral probability.
Deployment targetpoly.tjanczyk.comExisting tracker host stays available at track.tjanczyk.com.
BTCAug 16, 16:00
Spot$63,009
Avg gap+92 bp
Rows40
ETHAug 16, 16:00
Spot$1,881.45
Avg gap+73 bp
Rows40
Scan matrix

80 live comparisons

Dark rows are just lower conviction. They still matter when the gap is wide.
MarketPolyDeribitGapQuality