POLY // DERIBIT PROBABILITY CONSOLE

BTC and ETH higher/lower scans in a dark, market-first terminal.

This is a relative-value scanner, not a guarantee machine. It compares Polymarket binary ladders with Deribit’s implied volatility surface and ranks where the probability gap is widest.

Last snapshotAug 22, 07:31 UTC80 live ladders across 4 dates.

Biggest model gap+299 bpAbsolute difference between Polymarket midpoint and Deribit risk-neutral probability.

Deployment targetpoly.tjanczyk.comExisting tracker host stays available at track.tjanczyk.com.

BTCAug 22, 16:00

Spot$77,479

Avg gap+36 bp

Rows40

ETHAug 22, 16:00

Spot$2,439.34

Avg gap+75 bp

Rows40

Scan matrix

80 live comparisons

Dark rows are just lower conviction. They still matter when the gap is wide.

MarketPolyDeribitGapQuality

Selected signal

ETH $2,300.00

Aug 24, 16:00 UTC

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 24?

Polymarket above89.5%

Polymarket below10.5%

Deribit above86.5%

Deribit below13.5%

Execution read

Cheaper side on PolyBuy NO / below

Absolute gap+299 bp

Poly liquidity29.2K

Poly spread2.1%

Deribit surface

Spot$2,440.09

Strike distance-5.7%

IV sourceexact

Expiry mismatch16.0h

ETH-25AUG26-2300-C

Warnings

Non-trivial expiry mismatch between Polymarket and Deribit.

Methodology

Polymarket is treated as a crowd-implied binary probability from the YES/NO market midpoint.
Deribit probability is approximated from the nearest later option expiry using mark IV and a Black-Scholes risk-neutral tail probability.
This is a relative-value scanner, not a guaranteed arbitrage engine. Strike matching, expiry mismatch, liquidity, and fee drag still matter.

BTC and ETH higher/lower scans in a dark, market-first terminal.

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 24?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 22?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 23?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 22?

80 live comparisons