POLY // DERIBIT PROBABILITY CONSOLE

BTC and ETH higher/lower scans in a dark, market-first terminal.

This is a relative-value scanner, not a guarantee machine. It compares Polymarket binary ladders with Deribit’s implied volatility surface and ranks where the probability gap is widest.

Last snapshotAug 18, 09:35 UTC0 live ladders across 0 dates.

Biggest model gap0 bpAbsolute difference between Polymarket midpoint and Deribit risk-neutral probability.

Deployment targetpoly.tjanczyk.comExisting tracker host stays available at track.tjanczyk.com.

BTCNo live ladder

Spotn/a

Avg gap0 bp

Rows0

ETHNo live ladder

Spotn/a

Avg gap0 bp

Rows0

BTC: failed to fetch Deribit options surface.

ETH: failed to fetch Deribit options surface.

Scan matrix

0 live comparisons

Dark rows are just lower conviction. They still matter when the gap is wide.

MarketPolyDeribitGapQuality